Tag Archives: AL East

Run Differential

Just did a quick calculation of our run differential after week 1, we have been outscored by 11 runs 28-17. If you use the sabermetric value of runs (10 runs = 1 win) we should be a game under .500. Although, take Latroy Hawkins and Ian Kennedy out of the picture and we are tied at 17-17, which would be make us exactly at .500. Unfortunately we can’t do that, Ian Kennedy and Latroy Hawkins are both big reasons why we lost game 1 against the Rays. Fortunately, we have gotten some lucky breaks. My mind immediately goes to some defensive miscues by the Blue Jays. The scary thing is we are a couple good plays from being 1-5 or 0-6 or something like that. We will not continue to get breaks like this all season, hopefully sometime soon our offense will wake up so we can take some pressure off of our highly inconsistent starters. To digress a bit the staff has gone from good to bad every other day (Wang 7.0IP 2ER, Moose 5.2IP 5R 3ER, Franchise 6IP 2ER, Kennedy 2.2IP 6ER, Pettitte 5IP 5R 3ER, Wang 7IP 0ER). Let’s hope Wang continues to be the man and the performances of Kennedy and Pettitte improve about to where Phil Hughes was in his first start. If that can happen and the offense starts doing what it gets paid a heck of a lot to do, we will be good. If it can’t this could be get really, really ugly. On a side note, the AL East is going to be very interesting this year. The Rays and Jays are legit and aren’t going down without some serious fight. That said, couldn’t be happier that there’s baseball in my life again. Will be posting again soon. Until then let’s go Yanks!

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PTO %

The guys over a saber-scouting pitched a new stat called PTO% (Pitches Towards Outs %) which measures how many pitches per start a pitcher turns into outs. I decided to do some research and calculate the numbers for the best pitchers in the AL East.

The formula is:

PTO% = (SO*3)+SF+SH+(AB-SO-H)/Total Pitches

Josh Beckett PTO% = 36.2%
Eric Bedard PTO% = 33%
Chien-Ming Wang PTO% = 29.9%
Scott Kamir PTO% = 29.8%
Roy Halladay PTPO% = 27.7%

To put this in perspective here are each persons GS W IP PITT SO BB

Josh Beckett = GS: 34 IP: 200.7 PITT: 2692 SO:194 BB:40
Eric Bedard = GS: 28 IP: 182 PITT: 2939 SO: 221 BB: 57
Chien-Ming Wang = GS: 30 IP: 199.3 PITT: 2859 SO: 104 BB: 59
Scott Kazmir = GS: 34 IP: 206.7 PITT: 3604 SO: 239 BB: 89
Roy Halladay = GS: 31 IP: 225.3 PITT: 3323 SO: 139 BB: 48

To average some of those things out:

Josh Beckett averaged 5.9 innings per start. He averaged 4.5 pitches per out with a 36.2% PTO.

Eric Bedard averaged 6.5 innings per start. He averaged 5.38 pitches per out with a 33% PTO.

Chien-Ming Wang averaged 6.64 innings per start. He averaged 4.78 pitches per out with a 29.9% PTO.

Scott Kazmir averaged 6.07 innings per start. He averaged 5.8 pitches per out with a 29.8% PTO.

Roy Halladay averaged 7.26 innings per start. He averaged 4.9 pitches per out with a 27.7% PTO.

What I found most puzzling about these numbers is that Josh Beckett, although he picked up the most wins of any of these pitchers, through the fewest innings per start of any “ace” in the NL east. If you look at the gamelogs for Josh Beckett from 07′ he was very carefully watched by John Farrell and rarely touched 110 pitches in a start. This speaks volumes about his durability as a pitcher. The Red Sox were clearly afraid he would get injured, and babied him along through the season. It also speaks volumes about the Red Sox bullpen that they were able to preserve his wins when he didn’t average 6 innings per start with is one of the major qualifications of a quality start.

Roy Halladay by contrast through a lot more pitches, he also made 4 more starts and averaged over 7 innings a start even though only 27.7% of his pitches were made towards outs. This means Halladay was a much more durable and dependable starter than Josh Beckett 07′, which is surprising given Beckett’s reputation as the most dominant starter of 07′ (I’ve heard it said on ESPN I don’t know how many times).

What this also shows is the relationship between a groundball pitcher and strike out pitcher. Chien-Ming Wang averaged half an inning more than Scott Kazmir per start and a full pitch less per out than Scott Kazmir. While Chien-Ming Wang might not look as dazzling as Scott Kazmir when he goes about his business, and their PTO% is almost exactly the same, he is able to go deeper into games and throw less pitches in the process. He also walked 32 fewer hitters than Kazmir. All this leads to a faster, more exciting ball game for the players and the fans.